Welcome
WHY A 2026 GEOPOLITICAL RISK OUTLOOK IS ESSENTIAL
In 2026, geopolitics is no longer background noise but a core driver of corporate value, shaping market access, regulation, supply chains and investment choices. EY finds about 60% of FTSE 100 returns now hinge on geopolitical and macro forces, while one in four global firms saw margin erosion since 2017, wiping out an estimated $320bn in profit. Yet corporate responses remain uneven. Many executives rank regulatory and geopolitical disruption among the top risks to growth, but fewer than 40% report robust frameworks to manage them, creating a gap between awareness and preparedness. Leading companies are folding intelligence, scenario planning and stakeholder risk into supply chain, M&A and C-suite decision making, while others cut capability and hope to ride out volatility. The cost of delay is rising as trade is weaponised, regulation fragments and reputational flashpoints intensify. A clear, actionable outlook is now essential to protect performance and build resilience.
OCT 2025
This third edition of Insight Forward’s Top 10 Geopolitical Risks builds on a progression. In 2024 we mapped the unravelling of global order. In 2025 we showed how corporations became geopolitical actors in their own right. For 2026 the picture is clearer and more urgent. The risks no longer operate in isolation but as a cycle. State-led industrial competition and financial strain feed social fracture and radical politics. Those tensions then drive further coercion, regulatory pressure and grey-zone confrontation. Each force accelerates the next. This report is designed to help leaders navigate that loop with intent rather than react to it under pressure.
Top 10 Geopolitical Risks for Business in 2026
Risk
1
Transactionalism and Great Power Politics
Under the Trump administration, transactional diplomacy has disrupted long-standing alliances, undermined international institutions, and sped up the rise of a fragmented multipolar world. Security commitments and trade agreements, once seen as steadfast, now feel like negotiable deals, adding uncertainty to global politics. This shift encourages regional powers to act more boldly while businesses face fractured markets, varying regulations, and politically motivated barriers. By 2026, global business strategies need to account for volatility as a constant factor. The unpredictability of alliances and institutions caused by transactional diplomacy creates a fragmented world where sudden policy changes, regulatory divergence, and selective market access jeopardize corporate stability.
Risk
2
Techno-nationalism: Digital and AI Sovereignty
Countries are taking stronger control over digital infrastructure, data, and AI systems. Europe is reducing U.S. tech dominance through regulations and local alternatives, while China and others create closed digital ecosystems. In the U.S., internal conflicts arise from hyperscaler growth, environmental concerns, and inconsistent regulations. For global businesses, this creates a fragmented digital landscape where accessing markets requires meeting different technical, compliance, and security standards. Competing sovereignty efforts in digital infrastructure and AI are dividing the global tech environment, forcing companies to either manage separate systems or lose market opportunities. Risks come from export controls, localization demands, model registrations, and security checks that add costs, delay launches, and hinder interoperability.
Risk
3
Industrial Policy and Geoeconomics
Industrial policy and national security are becoming increasingly intertwined. Key sectors like semiconductors, AI, and cloud computing are now seen as tools of state power, with governments influencing capital, technology flows, and corporate governance. In the U.S., policies like quasi-nationalization and export rules tied to revenue-sharing show a growing state presence, while China and the EU are adopting their own interventionist strategies. For companies, staying competitive now means aligning with political goals, making compliance as critical as technological innovation. This merging of industrial policy and national security is reshaping global markets, forcing businesses in strategic industries to align with state priorities or face exclusion, regulations, and competitive setbacks.
Risk
4
Global Debt - Government and Corporate
Public and corporate debt has soared globally, creating risks of higher interest rates, defaults, and economic contagion. In the U.S., interest payments are nearly as large as the defense budget, squeezing private investment and hampering long-term growth. Sovereign credit downgrades, like Moody’s recent downgrade of the U.S., are unsettling markets. Defaults or crises in major economies such as China could unleash cascading shocks, threatening financial stability and corporate access to capital.
Risk
5
Bias in Generative Artificial Intelligence
Generative AI is transitioning from experimental tools to essential business functions, but its outputs and governance often carry the biases of their creators. Western models tend to reflect systemic ideological leanings, while Chinese systems frequently reinforce state narratives, turning technology into a tool of soft power. As these models influence decision-making, regulations, and consumer interactions, biases can skew strategies, spark reputational backlash, and invite legal challenges.
Risk
6
Decline in Social Bonds and Trust
The decline of social capital—marked by growing loneliness, civic disengagement, and divisive politics—is changing the way people shop, work, and protest. Buying habits are becoming tied to identity, turning brands into political symbols and causing rapid shifts in demand as campaigns and counter-campaigns gain traction. Within companies, polarization seeps into the workplace through grievances, activism, and safety concerns, increasing security expenses and management challenges. By 2026, leaders will need to navigate politicized markets, higher duty-of-care expectations, and the necessity to tailor customer and communication strategies based on values as well as demographics.
Risk
7
Modern Radical Politics - Left and Right
Radical movements on both ends of the spectrum are shaking up governments, coalitions, and policy agendas, pushing centrist views aside. Enforcement and rulemaking are becoming more partisan, leading to shifts in regulations, procurement, and licensing with each electoral cycle. Companies face increased scrutiny for perceived stances, with selective enforcement, targeted investigations, and activist pressure heightening compliance and reputational risks.
Risk
8
Revolutionary Violence in the New Gilded Age
Growing inequality, declining trust in institutions, and rapid technological advancements are driving a wave of anti-corporate anger. Executives and companies are seen as symbols of wealth concentration and political power, making them easy targets for frustration and attacks. Digital radicalization, along with accessible tools like drones, 3D-printed weapons, and doxxing, has lowered the threshold for violence and widened the pool of potential attackers. Events such as contested elections, layoffs, or scandals could trigger populist outrage aimed at corporate leaders and assets.
Risk
9
The Rise of Autonomous Weapons
Drones and autonomous systems are becoming a key part of modern warfare and are increasingly accessible to non-state actors. The conflicts in Ukraine and South Asia highlight how affordable drones, loitering munitions, and basic autonomy can achieve precision effects on a large scale. Autonomous vehicles and robotics introduce new attack risks, including VBIEDs, drone swarms, and compromised AI robots. For corporations, this means shorter warning times, unclear attribution, and unique attack methods targeting executives, facilities, logistics hubs, and public events. The rapid spread of drones and autonomous systems broadens the corporate threat landscape and shortens response times. Threatening to overwhelm traditional security measures.
Risk
10
Gray-zone Conflict and the Corporate Frontline
Gray-zone tactics like cyber intrusions, sabotage, disinformation, and maritime harassment have become common tools of statecraft, designed to impose costs without provoking outright war. Since companies manage much of the world's critical infrastructure and supply chains, they are key targets for state and proxy actors. Businesses must be ready for ongoing disruptions, unclear responsibility, and increasing pressure to act as partners in national security. State-linked gray-zone activities cause persistent issues through cyberattacks, sabotage, and disinformation campaigns that remain below the threshold of war, creating operational challenges and attribution difficulties. These risks arise from attacks on networks and operational technology, interference with shipping and logistics, and reputation manipulation, all of which increase costs, complicate recovery, and raise regulatory demands.
What to do next
FROM RISK TO STRATEGY
The 2026 risk landscape is not unknowable or chaotic. It is shaped by identifiable forces that must be met with deliberate strategy. Great-power bargaining, technology sovereignty, financial strain and AI bias create the conditions for social fragmentation, radical politics and grey-zone pressure on companies. These dynamics feed into each other and accelerate instability. The solution is not to wait for clarity but to act with context. Companies can no longer stand apart from geopolitical forces. They need to practise Boardroom Statecraft by anticipating pressure points, setting thresholds for action and building resilience into everyday decisions. Success in 2026 is not about predicting outcomes. It is about recognising patterns and moving early.
