This report examines two plausible strategic futures for Iran following the outbreak of large-scale conflict with the United States and Israel. The first scenario explores regime survival under intensified securitization, in which the Iranian state consolidates power, expands asymmetric retaliation, and enters a prolonged strategic confrontation with regional adversaries. The second scenario analyzes regime collapse and fragmented transition, where internal fragmentation, competing power centers, and weakened state authority produce acute instability across Iran and the wider Middle East.

Using structured geopolitical scenario analysis, the report evaluates how each pathway could reshape regional security dynamics, proxy conflicts in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, and the strategic balance between Iran, Gulf states, Israel, and the United States. Particular attention is given to the implications for global energy markets, including risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, elevated oil and LNG price volatility, and the growing role of maritime security and insurance costs in global trade.

The report also assesses the evolving risks surrounding Iran’s nuclear program, including the possibility of accelerated deterrent development under regime survival and custodial uncertainty over nuclear materials and facilities under regime collapse. In both scenarios, cyber operations, maritime disruption, and energy market volatility remain central features of the geopolitical environment.

For businesses, investors, and security professionals, the analysis highlights how geopolitical shocks in Iran can translate into long-term strategic risk across supply chains, energy markets, financial systems, and regional security structures. While regime survival produces a structured but adversarial strategic standoff, regime collapse introduces a far more unpredictable environment characterized by fragmented authority, proliferation risks, and regional power competition.

Rather than predicting a single outcome, the report provides a framework for understanding how different trajectories in Iran could unfold and what those trajectories would mean for governments, corporations, and global markets navigating an increasingly unstable geopolitical landscape.