24 October 2024
This Week:
Election Interference Spreads Globally
BRICS and Anti-Western Multipolarity
Violence Around U.S. Election
North Korean Troops in Ukraine
U.S. Army Deploys Missiles to Philippines
Defaults on Debt Increase in the Developing World
Research on Wagner Group
Election Interference Spreads Globally
In mid-October, Moldova's parliamentary email servers were hit by a cyberattack, just ahead of its presidential election and a referendum on joining the European Union. The attack, which compromised some information, is under investigation, though it is suspected that Russia, involved in a hybrid war against Moldova, may be responsible. The country frequently experiences cyber incidents, with a notable increase around elections. Preliminary election results showed President Maia Sandu leading with 42%, ahead of rival Alexandr Stoianoglo. The EU referendum saw a narrow majority of 50.39% favoring accession.
Sandu attributed this smaller margin to outside interference, claiming that criminal groups and foreign forces tried to buy votes and spread disinformation. Russia has been accused of using hybrid tactics, including social media manipulation, to influence Moldova’s elections. Germany's foreign minister also confirmed Russia’s involvement in cyberattacks across Europe. Despite these accusations, Russian officials dismissed the claims, demanding evidence of meddling and questioning the fairness of Moldova’s elections.
In addition, Chinese disinformation campaign known as Spamouflage renewed its attacks on U.S. Senator Marco Rubio (R-Florida), according to research by Clemson University’s Media Forensics Lab. Spamouflage, linked to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), previously targeted Rubio during his 2022 re-election campaign, flooding social media platforms with tens of thousands of posts designed to drown out his legitimate content. In the latest attack, which began in mid-September 2024, the group tested new disinformation tactics, using hijacked accounts with higher credibility and AI-generated posts to spread anti-Rubio messages.
Spamouflage has evolved from its earlier, less sophisticated content, now attempting to sow divisions in U.S. politics by mimicking Russian disinformation strategies. The group’s goal is not only to influence specific narratives but also to undermine political figures like Rubio, who is a vocal critic of China. Researchers warn that China's disinformation capabilities are often underestimated and that these operations are part of a broader effort to insert the CCP's influence into U.S. national conversations, using subtle and evolving tactics to manipulate public discourse.
Another recent example includes Russian operatives creating and amplifying false online content about Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz, such as manipulated audio content. In an attempt to thwart Russian disinformation, the State Department has even issued up to a $10 million reward for information on Rybar, a Russian media organization known for attempting to foment discord in the United States.
Accusations of election interference are not just between the U.S. and its adversaries. Former President Trump accused the British Labour Party of “blatant foreign interference” after some volunteers from the party came to the U.S. to help Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign (the legality of such actions hinges on whether or not Labour paid for any of their costs).
Election interference is an increasingly significant issue on multiple levels, and it is taking place across the world as great powers seek to influence countries towards their ends. This is nothing new, of course, but the addition of AI and the ability to test campaigns on smaller targets before using them in more important elections highlights a major shift, significantly increasing the risks of election meddling and destabilization.
BRICS and Anti-Western Multipolarity
Russia is using the BRICS summit in Kazan to challenge the U.S.-led global order and counter its isolation over the Ukraine war. BRICS, originally an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and later South Africa, has expanded to include new members like Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the UAE. The summit, which includes BRICS members and new additions, is Russia’s largest international event since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Putin aims to show that Moscow is not alone on the global stage, despite the International Criminal Court’s 2023 arrest warrant against him for alleged war crimes. Despite Russia’s pariah status in the West, BRICS’ potential as a multilateral economic alternative makes it appealing to non-aligned powers.
Key topics for the summit include:
- The Russia-Ukraine War: China and Brazil are promoting a peace proposal, but Putin refuses to cede control of the occupied Ukrainian regions. Many BRICS members back Russia, and Iran has allegedly supplied Russia with military equipment, while China has been accused of providing dual-use goods.
- Middle East Tensions: Iran supports militant groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, while Russia and China criticize Israel’s actions and call for a cease-fire. The UAE, however, maintains a more neutral stance.
- Reducing U.S. Dollar Dependence: BRICS countries are interested in bypassing the Western SWIFT payment system to help Russia evade sanctions and enhance technological and economic cooperation.
Russia aims to challenge Western dominance, particularly the U.S., by promoting a multipolar world order, but the group has limitations. While BRICS offers Russia diplomatic support, some emerging powers like Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan chose not to attend, signaling diplomatic caution. The group's history began as a term coined by an investment banker, and over the years, BRICS has developed into a forum for countries desiring a more equitable global order. However, there are tensions within the bloc. Russia and China push for an anti-Western stance, while countries like India and Brazil prefer nonalignment. BRICS is united by a shared desire to reform global governance and reduce the dominance of the U.S. dollar, but the group faces challenges in creating a viable alternative.
Despite ambitions to offer non-dollar loans through the BRICS’ New Development Bank (NDB), the bank still faces limitations, as seen when it suspended operations in Russia due to U.S. sanctions. While the group seeks alternatives to the dollar, including increasing the use of China’s renminbi, concerns remain that replacing U.S. dominance with Chinese control may not provide true multipolarity. Insight Forward has previously discussed the desire of Russia and other rising powers to seek multipolarity, and BRICS wants to move in that direction. However, BRICS remains more of a symbol of rebellion against U.S. influence than a cohesive bloc, and it faces internal divisions that could limit its ability to reshape the global financial and political systems.
Violence Around U.S. Election
Recent incidents of political violence in the U.S. reflect rising tensions ahead of the 2024 presidential election. In Pennsylvania, a man attacked supporters of Vice President Kamala Harris, injuring a 74-year-old man. In Michigan, another assailant, enraged by Donald Trump, used an all-terrain vehicle to run over an elderly Trump supporter. These are just two examples among over 300 cases of political violence since January 6, 2021, including 51 incidents in 2024 alone. Inflammatory rhetoric is likely fueling a highly volatile political climate. Incidents related to other contentious issues, such as LGBTQ+ rights and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, further highlight the growing role of violence in U.S. politics. There is strong credibility of post-election unrest, especially in battleground states with narrow margins. While many of the violent incidents documented have not resulted in fatalities, the potential for escalation remains high in the lead-up to the November election.
Besides these acts of documented political violence, the threat of terrorism is considered significantly higher at the moment. The Department of Homeland Security has issued a warning that that there is a heightened risk of extremists targeting ballot drop boxes with bombings or arson. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) also issued a warning for violence encouraged by foreign adversaries. According to ODNI, "Foreign actors, particularly Russia, Iran and China, remain intent on fanning divisive narratives to divide Americans and undermine Americans' confidence in the U.S. democratic system. These activities are consistent with what these actors perceive to be in their interests, even as their tactics continue to evolve.” Finally, the Department of Justice has noted the increased online discussions by ISIS of encouraging terrorist attacks on election day. Political violence, terrorism, and social unrest remain credible leading up to, on the day of, and following the U.S. election. See here for an ASIS Q&A on polling place security risks.
North Korean Troops in Ukraine
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin confirmed evidence of North Korean troops in Russia, though their exact role remains unclear. Austin stressed that it would be a serious concern if they are preparing to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine, as Ukraine has claimed. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy mentioned intelligence indicating up to 12,000 North Korean troops might join the conflict. North Korea and Russia have strengthened military ties since 2022, and U.S. officials believe North Korea has provided artillery and missiles to Russia. South Korea's spy agency also reported that North Korea has sent special forces to Russia for training, potentially to support Russian efforts in Ukraine. These reports indicate the shifting nature of the conflict in Ukraine and potentially destabilizing impacts on East Asia as South Korea is considering sending weapons to Ukraine and possibly military personnel to counter North Korea's increasing involvement. South Korea's National Security Council has called for the withdrawal of North Korean troops and promised "phased countermeasures." Previously, South Korea was hesitant to arm Ukraine directly due to fear of Russia-North Korea collaboration, but their change in approach is driven by the belief that North Korea is gaining significant value from its involvement in Ukraine. This shift could align with President Yoon Suk Yeol's "peace through strength" policy. North Korea’s involvement in Ukraine marks a broader, long-term strategic alignment with Russia, which will likely pose serious threats to South Korea’s security, and regional powers will have to reconsider their approach to the ongoing conflicts.
U.S. Army Deploys Missiles to Philippines
The U.S. Army's recent deployment of a midrange missile system to the northern Philippines is viewed as highly significant, allowing American and Filipino forces to train together in island conditions. This move is part of the Biden administration’s effort to strengthen military alliances in the Indo-Pacific to counter China, particularly over Taiwan and the South China Sea. The deployment of the Typhon missile system, which can fire the Standard Missile-6 and Tomahawk Land Attack Missile, has alarmed China. Although originally planned to be temporary, U.S. and Philippine officials agreed to keep the missile system in the Philippines to bolster deterrence. Major General Marcus Evans, commanding general of the U.S. Army’s 25th Infantry Division, emphasized the importance of training in the challenging environment of the Philippines and working with local forces to integrate advanced military systems. Last year, the U.S. deployed long-range HIMARS rocket systems to the area, and future exercises aim to expand on these efforts with more complex drills and new equipment. Evans is in talks with Philippine counterparts about holding larger, more sophisticated joint military exercises in 2025, further indicating the hard power balancing going on to counter China.
China Conducts Military Exercises Near Taiwan
China's recent military exercises around Taiwan, called "Joint Sword-2024B," were a direct response to Taiwanese President William Lai's speech pledging to "resist annexation or encroachment" from Beijing. The drills, which involved air and naval forces, simulated joint blockades aimed at preventing external military aid and limiting Taiwan's mobilization capabilities. This operation demonstrates China’s growing ability to impose blockades, highlighting the risks to global supply chains. Prolonged conflict would likely paralyze key trade routes, destabilize financial markets, and disrupt vital industries like semiconductor manufacturing
Defaults on Debt Increase in the Developing World
Emerging economies, such as Ghana, Sri Lanka, and Zambia, are recovering from sovereign defaults, but a new crisis is emerging: a liquidity shortfall. This threatens to hinder economic development and lead to greater political instability. The issue stems from rising debt service costs, with many developing countries paying more on debt, particularly to China, than they receive in external financing. As global interest rates rise, affordable refinancing is out of reach for these nations, and the flow of funds is turning negative. Despite efforts by the IMF and World Bank, including cutting surcharges and boosting lending, these actions are not sufficient. China's reduction in development lending has exacerbated the situation, turning it into a net negative flow for countries repaying debt. While some emerging countries are able to re-enter financial markets, borrowing costs remain unsustainably high. Institutions like the Inter-American Development Bank and Africa Development Bank are seeking more funds from developed nations to expand lending, but countries like France and Britain are cutting aid. This precarious mix of debt, high borrowing costs, and reduced international support risks destabilizing the Global South, with protests already seen in countries like Kenya and Nigeria.
Research on Wagner Group
New America, a think tank in Washington, DC, has produced new investigative research on the Wagner Group. They worked with American University’s War Crimes Research Office, Arizona State University’s Information Competition Lab and Future Security Initiative, and C4ADS. According to the groups, “This collaborative effort has provided essential groundwork for the ongoing task of pursuing accountability for Wagner’s actions.” See here for the research.
"There are things known and there are things unknown, and in between are the doors of perception"
- Aldous Huxley
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