#1

Russian Spy Ship Targets Undersea Cables

A Russian spy ship, the Yantar, was escorted out of the Irish Sea by the Irish Navy after patrolling near critical subsea energy and internet cables in Irish-controlled waters. The ship had previously accompanied a Russian warship, the Admiral Golovko, through the English Channel before breaking off into the Irish Sea, raising concerns about potential surveillance or interference with key infrastructure. The Yantar, officially classified as an oceanographic research vessel, is known for its intelligence-gathering capabilities, including deploying drones and deep-diving submersibles to monitor seabed infrastructure. During its time in Irish waters, it was observed operating drones near interconnector cables that facilitate internet traffic between Ireland, the UK, and transatlantic routes. These cables are critical to data centers operated by major tech companies such as Google and Microsoft, headquartered in Ireland. The ship's movements follow heightened European concerns about undersea infrastructure security, exacerbated by incidents like the Baltic gas pipeline sabotage earlier this year. The incident highlights the persistent threat of probing actions by the Russian navy in Western Europe. The Yantar's mission was likely focused on intelligence gathering and strategic signaling rather than direct sabotage, but its presence underscores vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure across Europe.

#2

ATACMS Deployment and Russia’s Escalating Nuclear Posture

President Joe Biden has approved Ukraine's use of American-made Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to target Russia directly. Additionally, the U.S. will allow Ukraine to deploy non-persistent anti-personnel landmines. Russia labelled the move an escalation. Ukraine has already used the long-range missiles to strike a weapons depot in Russia’s Bryansk region. Russia responded by reportedly firing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has lowered the threshold for nuclear weapon use by expanding the country’s nuclear doctrine. The changes now allow nuclear retaliation against significant conventional attacks, including by non-nuclear states supported by nuclear-armed allies, and broaden scenarios justifying nuclear deployment, such as large-scale aerial strikes. Russian President Vladimir Putin and senior Russian officials have repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons in the war against Ukraine. While the likelihood of this remains very low, these threats aim to deter Western support for Ukraine, and they increase when Russia faces battlefield setbacks or other pressures related to the conflict. Potential triggers for nuclear weapons use including major casualties or damage within Russia from NATO-supplied weapons, fears of military defeat, or existential threats to Putin’s regime.

#3

India and Nigeria Improve Relations

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Nigerian President Bola Tinubu agreed to strengthen collaboration on maritime security, intelligence sharing, and counter-terrorism during Modi’s state visit to Nigeria—the first by an Indian premier in 17 years. The two leaders discussed a broad range of issues, including economic development, defense, healthcare, and food security. The partnership aims to address growing security challenges in the Gulf of Guinea and the Indian Ocean, including piracy, by coordinating efforts to protect maritime trade routes. Nigeria, seeking to attract investment and boost its economy, is focusing on securing Indian investments and credit. India has significant economic ties with Nigeria, with over 200 Indian companies operating in the country. At the G20 summit last year, Nigeria secured $14 billion in investment pledges from Indian firms, including $3 billion from Jindal Steel and Power to develop Nigeria’s steel industry. While such an agreement is not unusual, this highlights the increasing importance of Africa in great power competition. Many have focused on Russian mercenaries and Chinese infrastructure, but all great powers are going to seek a foothold in Africa over the medium term because of its economic and strategic importance. Corporations need to understand the centrality of Africa to great powers’ strategic approaches and what that will means for business operations.

#4

China Targets Telecoms

Chinese threat actor group Salt Typhoon, also known as Earth Estries, has been conducting a sophisticated, months-long cyber espionage campaign targeting telecommunications companies, including T-Mobile, AT&T, Verizon, and Lumen Technologies. The campaign aims to compromise cellular networks, exfiltrate call data records, and potentially intercept private communications, particularly of government or politically involved individuals. While T-Mobile has confirmed it was targeted, the company states there is no evidence of significant impacts on its systems or customer data. This attack is part of a broader campaign identified by U.S. authorities, which revealed that PRC-affiliated actors have infiltrated multiple telecom networks to steal sensitive information and exploit vulnerabilities. Salt Typhoon's campaigns have also been linked to attacks on organizations in the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, South Africa, Germany, and the U.S. The group uses layered strategies to maintain access, conceal traffic, and evade detection, including employing advanced malware such as Snappybee (a successor to ShadowPad) and IIS implants like FuxosDoor. Cybersecurity researchers warn that these advanced tactics demonstrate Salt Typhoon's adaptability and strategic approach, making their campaigns particularly challenging to detect and mitigate. The U.S. government continues to investigate the scope of the compromise, warning that it could expand as the probe progresses. Understanding the TTPs of Chinese threat actors and the strategic objectives of the CCP is essential for improving security.

#5

Western Businesses Restructuring in China

Western businesses operating in China are increasingly restructuring because of escalating geopolitical tensions, heightened regulatory scrutiny, and shifting local market dynamics. Consulting firms like PwC, BCG, and Bain & Company are separating their Chinese units from global operations. Similarly, McKinsey & Company and Mayer Brown have downsized or reorganized their Chinese operations to reduce exposure to these pressures. In other sectors, companies like IBM and Walmart have scaled back or exited the Chinese market entirely, citing intensified local competition and the need for strategic realignments. Increased compliance burdens, including stringent inspections and national security laws—which have led to incidents of consultants being detained—are further complicating operations. Sectoral slowdowns and the potential for an escalating U.S.-China trade war are prompting many corporations to reassess their long-term strategies in China.

#6

Bipartisan Cybersecurity Regulations Introduced

Representative Clay Higgins (R-LA) has introduced legislation to streamline U.S. cybersecurity regulations, aiming to harmonize the current fragmented system imposed by federal agencies on private companies. The proposal mirrors a bipartisan Senate bill, overwhelmingly approved earlier this year, that calls for the White House’s national cyber director to establish a committee to align and simplify cybersecurity requirements. The Biden administration supports the legislation, emphasizing that redundant and conflicting regulations divert resources from effective cyber risk mitigation. Harry Coker, the U.S. cyber director, warned that the current compliance-focused system undermines national cybersecurity efforts. With Congress nearing the end of its session, time is running out to pass the bill. It could be attached to a short-term government funding bill before the December 20 deadline, but the legislative window is tight. If not passed, the legislation may expire, requiring a restart under the new Congress and the incoming Trump administration, which is expected to reset legislative priorities. However, if the bill must move to the next legislative session, it will still likely pass eventually because of the pro-business views of the Trump administration that wants to cut regulations. Simplified cybersecurity regulations would be generally beneficial for corporations as the current system is onerous and complex.

#7

Assassination Attempt in Canada

Canadian authorities thwarted an alleged Iranian plot to assassinate Irwin Cotler, a former justice minister and prominent human rights advocate critical of Tehran. Cotler, aged 84, served as Canada's justice minister from 2003 to 2006 and has remained active in advocating for human rights globally. The plot was uncovered on October 26, when authorities informed Cotler of an imminent threat from Iranian agents, reportedly within 48 hours. Cotler has been under police protection since October 2023, following the Hamas attack on Israel, given his strong advocacy for Israel and his efforts to have Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) designated as a terrorist organization. The IRGC was officially banned by Canada in June, citing Iran's human rights abuses and destabilizing actions. Insight Forward continues to document the increased risks of (attempted) assassinations that many governments and corporations are likely to face over the medium term.